Waste Connections raises 2026 outlook again and lifts dividend 10% after beating its own targets

Waste Connections raised its full-year outlook for the second time and increased its dividend 10%, after third-quarter results that topped the trash hauler's own expectations.

Revenue rose to $2.638 billion from $2.458 billion a year earlier, according to the earnings release the company filed with an 8-K on Wednesday. Net income was $359.2 million, or $1.43 a share, and adjusted net income, a non-GAAP measure, was $1.58 a share.

Adjusted EBITDA reached $895.8 million, or 34.0% of revenue. Operating income rose to $541.7 million from $439.6 million, when last year's quarter included $63.5 million mainly tied to contract and permit write-downs and an environmental liability.

"Another top to bottom beat in the period was driven by continued strength in operational execution along with improving trends in landfill activity and commodity-driven revenue," President and CEO Ronald Mittelstaedt said in the release. He said the company overcame "a late quarter surge in diesel pricing."

Outlook

Waste Connections now expects 2026 revenue of about $10.09 billion, net income of about $1.18 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $3.345 billion. It expects adjusted free cash flow of $1.40 billion to $1.45 billion. The outlook excludes acquisitions that have not yet closed.

Closed acquisitions so far this year represent about $130 million in annualized revenue, the company said.

Returning cash

The 10% increase in the regular quarterly dividend is the company's 16th consecutive double-digit annual raise. Share repurchases so far this year exceed $1 billion, covering 2.5% of outstanding shares.

By the numbers

• Revenue: $2.638 billion, vs. $2.458 billion
• EPS: $1.43; adjusted EPS: $1.58
• Adjusted EBITDA margin: 34.0%
• 2026 revenue outlook: about $10.09 billion
• Dividend increase: 10%

Sources

1. Waste Connections, Inc., Form 8-K (Items 2.02, 7.01) with Exhibit 99.1 earnings release dated Oct. 21, 2026, accession 0001104659-26-117838

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