Vistra Raises 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook After Q3 Results Jump More Than 50%
Vistra Corp. reported third-quarter 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $2.378 billion, up more than 50% from $1.581 billion a year earlier, and raised the midpoint of its 2026 outlook, according to an 8-K furnished Friday.
GAAP net income was $1.140 billion, including an unrealized hedge gain of $559 million expected to settle in future years. Net income rose $488 million from the year-earlier quarter.
Guidance and buybacks
Vistra narrowed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG to $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion. It initiated 2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion and Adjusted FCFbG of $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion. The board authorized an additional $1.5 billion of share repurchases expected to be used by year-end 2028. As of Nov. 2, 2026, Vistra said it had executed an estimated $6.7 billion in share repurchases since November 2021 and had an estimated 339 million shares outstanding.
Fleet and commercial updates
In October 2026, Vistra closed the Cogentrix Energy acquisition of an estimated 5,500 MW of natural gas-fueled generation. It started operations at the 405 MW Pulaski Solar Facility in Illinois under a Microsoft power purchase agreement and at the 100 MW Deer Creek Solar & Energy Storage Facility in California, and announced a 20-year 207 MW power purchase agreement with New Era Energy and Digital at its Odessa plant in Texas.
CEO Jim Burke said higher realized energy and capacity prices, three months of contribution from plants acquired from Lotus, and the return of Martin Lake Unit 1 helped drive the Adjusted EBITDA increase. As of Oct. 30, 2026, Vistra had hedged an estimated 100% of expected 2026 generation volumes, 98% for 2027, and 78% for 2028.
By the numbers
- Q3 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA: $2.378 billion
- Q3 GAAP net income: $1.140 billion
- 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance: $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion
- 2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance: $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion
- Additional buyback authorization: $1.5 billion
Sources
- Vistra Form 8-K with third-quarter 2026 earnings release (Exhibit 99.1), filed Nov. 6, 2026 (accession 0001692819-26-000023)
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