Upstart Q3 Originations Hit Record $4.1 Billion, Up 44.3%, as CEO Flags Macro Pressure
Upstart posted record third-quarter loan originations of $4.1 billion, up 44.3% from a year earlier, and a 15.0% rise in net income, but the AI lending marketplace warned that the economy is weighing on its near-term outlook.
Total revenue rose 33.7% to $370.5 million, according to the earnings release Upstart filed with an 8-K on Tuesday. Revenue from fees, net, reached a record $364.0 million, up 40.8%. Net income was $36.6 million, up from $31.8 million, and diluted earnings per share climbed to $0.33 from $0.23. Income from operations increased to $36.0 million from $23.7 million.
"Macro comes and goes, but alpha compounds," co-founder and CEO Paul Gu said in the release. "Macro is putting pressure on our near-term outlook, but the progress we're making gives me more confidence than ever in Upstart's long-term potential."
Record volume and contribution profit
The marketplace facilitated a record 574,089 loans in the quarter, up 34.1% from 428,056. Contribution profit, which subtracts borrower acquisition, verification and servicing costs from fee revenue, hit an all-time high of $218.0 million, up 47.9%. Contribution margin widened to 59.9% from 57.0%.
Adjusted EBITDA increased 25.5% to $89.3 million from $71.2 million, though the adjusted EBITDA margin narrowed to 24.1% from 25.7% of total revenue.
The conversion rate, the share of legitimate rate inquiries that become loans, slipped to 18.6% from 19.4%. Upstart said it plans to stop reporting that metric starting in the first quarter of 2027.
Unsecured and secured products
Unsecured lending fee revenue rose 30.3% to $329.9 million, and its contribution profit increased 35.1% to $212.1 million on originations of $3.53 billion.
Secured products, which cover auto loans and home equity lines of credit, swung to a positive 17% combined contribution margin from negative 179% a year earlier and negative 35% in the second quarter. The company said the category reached positive contribution margin one quarter ahead of its target. Originations in its other segments, which include auto lending, rose 193.2% to $586.4 million from $200.0 million.
Gu said Upstart supported platform growth "with proportionately less equity capital." The company's balance sheet carried $940.7 million of loans at fair value at the end of September, down from $984.6 million at the end of 2025.
2026 outlook
For the full year, Upstart expects revenue from fees of an estimated $1.32 billion, total revenue of an estimated $1.35 billion and adjusted EBITDA of an estimated $260 million, or a 19% margin, the company said. The release did not say how those targets compare with its prior outlook.
By the numbers
- Originations: $4.1 billion, up 44.3%
- Total revenue: $370.5 million, up 33.7%
- Diluted EPS: $0.33, up from $0.23
- Contribution profit: $218.0 million, up 47.9%
- Adjusted EBITDA: $89.3 million, up 25.5%
Sources
- Upstart Holdings Form 8-K with third-quarter 2026 earnings release, filed Nov. 3, 2026 (accession 0001647639-26-000083)
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