Treasury Trims October–December Borrowing Estimate to $618 Billion, Sees $800 Billion in Early 2027
The U.S. Treasury expects to borrow $618 billion in privately-held net marketable debt in the October–December 2026 quarter, $10 billion less than it projected in August, and plans to borrow $800 billion in the January–March 2027 quarter, the department said Monday.
The estimates, released Nov. 2, set the stage for Treasury's Quarterly Refunding announcement later this week. Together the two quarters add up to $1.418 trillion of planned net borrowing from private investors.
Current quarter: a bigger cash cushion
The October–December estimate assumes Treasury ends December with a cash balance of $850 billion.
Treasury said the $10 billion cut from its August estimate came primarily from a higher-than-assumed cash balance at the start of the quarter, partially offset by lower projected net cash flows. The quarter opened with $984 billion in cash, $34 billion more than the $950 billion Treasury had assumed in August.
Strip out that larger starting cushion and the picture flips. Excluding the higher-than-assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current-quarter borrowing estimate is $24 billion higher than announced in August, the U.S. Department of the Treasury said.
Early 2027 outlook
For the January–March 2027 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $800 billion, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $1 trillion.
July–September came in close to plan
In the July–September 2026 quarter, Treasury borrowed $742 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with $984 billion in cash. In August, it had estimated borrowing of $739 billion and an end-of-September cash balance of $950 billion.
Treasury said the higher borrowing resulted primarily from the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, offset by higher net cash flows. Excluding the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, actual borrowing was $30 billion lower than announced in August.
What the measure covers
Privately-held net marketable borrowing excludes rollovers of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required because of SOMA redemptions, according to the release. Treasury said buybacks are not expected to significantly affect the figure, because new issuance replaces securities that are bought back.
What's next
Additional financing details for Treasury's Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026, the department said.
By the numbers
- $618 billion: October–December 2026 borrowing estimate, $10 billion below August's
- $850 billion: assumed end-of-December cash balance
- $800 billion: January–March 2027 borrowing estimate
- $1 trillion: assumed end-of-March cash balance
- $742 billion: actual July–September borrowing, versus a $739 billion August estimate
- $984 billion: cash balance at the end of September, versus $950 billion assumed
Sources
- U.S. Department of the Treasury press release, Nov. 2, 2026
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