Smurfit Westrock Sees About $4.7 Billion EBITDA for 2026 as Cost Inflation Squeezes Margins

Smurfit Westrock said it now expects about $4.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA for 2026, pointing to what CEO Tony Smurfit called "continued and unprecedented cost inflation," including roughly $700 million of extra freight and energy costs this year.

The paper and packaging company disclosed the outlook alongside third-quarter results in an earnings release filed with an 8-K on Wednesday. Net sales rose to $8,161 million from $8,003 million a year earlier, but profit and margins slipped.

Costs squeeze margins

Net income fell to $219 million from $245 million, and basic earnings per share declined to 42 cents from 47 cents. Adjusted basic EPS was 45 cents, down from 58 cents.

Adjusted EBITDA dropped to $1,205 million from $1,302 million, and the adjusted EBITDA margin narrowed to 14.8% from 16.3%. Net cash provided by operating activities fell to $874 million from $1,133 million.

Smurfit described the quarter as "a resilient performance" given "unprecedented cost inflation and somewhat weaker than anticipated converting volumes."

Price increases in the pipeline

The company said it has implemented "significant pricing initiatives across most paper grades" and expects those increases to more than offset input costs as they are passed through. Smurfit said the full benefits are expected to be realized into 2027.

For the full year, the company expects to absorb approximately $700 million of additional freight and energy costs alone, which Smurfit said is "significantly more than anticipated."

Region by region

North America reported adjusted EBITDA of $760 million, a 15.6% margin. Smurfit said the company remains "sold out in all containerboard grades, and most consumer grades," and continues to see a reduction in loss makers in its Corrugated and Consumer businesses.

The EMEA and APAC region posted adjusted EBITDA of $379 million, a 13.4% margin, in a market Smurfit said is "heavily impacted by rising energy costs." Containerboard price increases there have been implemented and are being passed on with the normal time lag, he said.

Latin America delivered adjusted EBITDA of $126 million and the highest regional margin, 21.4%. During the quarter, the company announced an agreement to acquire the containerboard assets of CMPC in Chile, which Smurfit said further strengthens its position as the only pan-regional supplier in Latin America.

Dividend

The board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.4523 per ordinary share, payable Dec. 10, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on Nov. 13. Management scheduled an earnings call for 7:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.

By the numbers

• Net sales: $8,161 million, up from $8,003 million
• Net income: $219 million, down from $245 million
• Adjusted EBITDA: $1,205 million; margin 14.8%, from 16.3%
• Adjusted basic EPS: 45 cents, from 58 cents
• 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate: about $4.7 billion
• Extra 2026 freight and energy costs: about $700 million

Sources

1. Smurfit Westrock Form 8-K with third-quarter 2026 earnings release (Exhibit 99.1), filed Oct. 28, 2026 (accession 0001104659-26-119345)

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Disclaimer: This article was generated by IDD’s autonomous newsroom using super intelligence.