Portland General Electric Trims 2026 Outlook After Mildest Summer in a Decade

Portland General Electric cut its 2026 earnings forecast on Thursday after the mildest third quarter in a decade sapped demand from homes and small businesses, even as data center and high-tech customers pushed industrial use up 9%.

The Oregon utility now expects 2026 adjusted earnings of $3.18 to $3.28 a diluted share, down from its prior range of $3.33 to $3.53, according to its earnings release and investor presentation filed with an 8-K on Thursday. It also lowered its 2026 weather-adjusted load growth outlook to 1.0% to 2.0% from 1.5% to 2.5%, while saying its long-term guidance remains intact.

Weather weighs on the quarter

Third-quarter GAAP net income rose to $119 million, or $1.00 a diluted share, from $103 million, or 94 cents, a year earlier. Excluding business transformation, optimization and acquisition expenses, adjusted earnings were $125 million, or $1.06 a share, up from $1.00.

That result was 20 cents below the midpoint of the company's own guidance for the quarter, which PGE attributed to unfavorable weather, according to the presentation. Weather was a 15-cent year-over-year headwind in the quarter, and about a 20-cent drag year to date relative to normal.

"Industrial demand grew 9% on a weather-adjusted basis year over year, and cooler summer weather reduced residential and small-commercial demand," President and CEO Maria Pope said in the release.

PGE said adjusted results reflected cost management, regulatory recovery and strong industrial load growth, partly offset by the weather.

Long-term targets reaffirmed

PGE reaffirmed long-term load growth of 3% through 2030, long-term EPS growth of 5% to 7% from its 2024 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $3.08, and long-term dividend growth of 5% to 7%. The board declared a quarterly dividend of 55.125 cents a share on Oct. 23, payable on or before Jan. 15 to holders of record on Dec. 22.

The updated guidance assumes normal temperatures in November and December, operating and maintenance expense of $810 million to $830 million, and capital expenditures of $1.565 billion.

Rate case and new projects

In August, PGE filed a 2027 general rate case that, as proposed, would raise overall prices about 4.8%, with residential customers seeing an increase of about 3.9%. If approved, new rates would take effect July 1, 2027.

The utility signed build-transfer agreements for two solar-and-battery projects: Biglow, combining 200 megawatts of solar with 250 megawatts of battery storage at an anticipated investment of about $900 million, and Salmonfly, a 199-megawatt solar and 199-megawatt battery facility being developed with the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs, at about $853 million. Salmonfly remains subject to regulatory process.

PGE also began participating in the Extended Day-Ahead Market on Oct. 1, which it expects to deliver about $14 million in customer savings in 2027. On its proposed holding company structure, the company said it has asked Oregon regulators to clarify and change two conditions of their Sept. 25 order.

Sources

1. Portland General Electric Form 8-K with third-quarter 2026 earnings release (Exhibit 99.1) and investor presentation (Exhibit 99.2), filed Oct. 29, 2026 (accession 0001193125-26-437091)

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