MAA Narrows Core FFO Outlook as New-Lease Rents Fall 6% in Q3

MAA trimmed its full-year forecast on Wednesday, lowering the midpoint of its 2026 core funds from operations guidance as higher interest rates and a later-than-expected recovery in new-lease pricing weighed on the apartment REIT.

Mid-America Apartment Communities now expects core FFO of $8.43 to $8.55 a diluted share, for a midpoint of $8.49, compared with a previous range of $8.41 to $8.65 and midpoint of $8.53, according to its third-quarter earnings release filed with an 8-K on Wednesday.

A softer forecast

The company also cut its same-store outlook. It now expects same-store property revenue to decline 0.10% to 0.40%, compared with a prior range of a 0.20% decline to 0.40% growth, and same-store net operating income to fall 0.80% to 1.70%. Expected expense growth was lowered to 1.15% to 1.65%.

"Our revised forecast reflects higher interest rates and new resident year-over-year pricing improvement occurring about a quarter later than we expected," President and CEO Brad Hill said in the release.

For the fourth quarter, MAA expects core FFO of $2.12 to $2.24 a share.

Inside the quarter

Core FFO came in at $2.10 a diluted share, down from $2.16 a year earlier, which Hill said "met our expectations." FFO was $2.11 a share, compared with $2.14, and earnings per diluted share fell to $0.72 from $0.84.

Same-store revenue slipped 0.4% while expenses rose 2.0%, leaving same-store NOI down 1.8%. Average physical occupancy was 95.3%, and average effective rent per unit was $1,691.

Pricing was split. Rents on renewing leases rose 5.3%, an 80-basis-point improvement from a year ago, while new leases were signed at rates 6.0% lower. Blended lease rate growth was 0.4%.

Signs of a turn in October

Hill pointed to improvement after the quarter ended. He said October new-lease pricing improved from September, "counter to the normal seasonal pattern," producing the year's first year-over-year improvement in new resident lease-over-lease pricing, while October blended pricing accelerated more than 100 basis points from a year earlier.

Resident turnover stayed low at 39.6%, and move-outs tied to buying single-family homes fell to a record low 10.1% for the quarter, the company said.

Building and buying back

MAA had eight development projects totaling 2,236 units under construction at quarter-end, with $760 million in expected total costs, and began new communities in Northern Virginia and Nashville plus a phase II expansion in Kansas City.

The company repurchased 0.4 million shares at a weighted average price of $126.72 for $50.0 million during the quarter. On Oct. 1, it redeemed all of its 8.50% Series I preferred shares using $43.4 million of cash. It also borrowed an additional $250 million under its delayed draw term loan, bringing the balance to $350 million.

MAA will host a conference call at 9 a.m. Central Time on Thursday.

Sources

1. MAA Form 8-K with third-quarter 2026 earnings release (Exhibit 99.1), filed Oct. 28, 2026 (accession 0001193125-26-436173)

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